China's Inflation: Demand-Pull or Cost-Push?^∗

This paper studies the determinants of China's inflation and finds that demand-pull factors have been more important than cost-push factors in driving the inflation in the past decade. Because China's economic growth will gradually moderate and because the adjustment of the prices of the factors of production is also underway, the cost-push factors may soon play a more significant role in driving future inflation. Thus the Keynesian-style demand-side policy will not be enough to control inflation. More attention must now be given to supply-side management—such as dismantling monopolies, boosting private investment, encouraging innovation, and improving productivity—to mitigate the medium- to long-term inflation pressure.