Sung-Chun Jung said the paper was impressive. He asked Barry Eichengreen what his view of the future is.

Chalongphob Sussangkarn stated that total factor productivity (TFP) numbers are taken for granted when in fact it is difficult to measure productivity. On the labor side, there is greater control—hours can be reduced. But this is not the case for capital. It is more difficult to measure the quality of capital. The measurement of TFP changes when capital utilization is low; TFP will tend to be low and vice versa. On the capital side, he pointed out that there is only one variable used, namely, the growth of capital. He suggested including the use of capital and the growth of capital squared. In periods of high investment, one can invest in low-quality investment and thus TFP will be low.

Deborah Swenson questioned the definition of “slumps” used in the paper. She pointed...

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