Yiping Huang, Peking University: COVID-19 has dramatically changed the short-term growth trajectory of the world economy. In October 2019, the IMF predicted that the world, the United States, and the Chinese economies in 2020 would grow by 3.4 percent, 1.7 percent, and 5.8 percent respectively (IMF 2019). In June 2020, due to the COVID-19 shock, the IMF downgraded these forecasts to −4.9 percent, −8.0 percent, and 1.0 percent, respectively (IMF 2020). But the exact macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 are still not clear. We do not yet fully understand how the virus initially emerged and how it mutates. The mechanisms through which the pandemic affects economic activities are even more complex.
Taking China as an example, it was the first country to be hit by COVID-19, which quickly spread to the rest of the country. However, the Chinese economy will probably be one of the most resilient ones in...