Shigeyuki Abe: Swenson's paper presents a significant analysis of the U.S. tariff exemption process during the U.S.–China trade war, providing valuable insights into how exemptions were determined based largely on the availability of alternative sourcing options. Although these exemptions offered limited relief, the overall impact of tariffs led to a substantial and lasting reduction in U.S. imports from China. The study effectively demonstrates that shifts in sourcing patterns were influenced not only by the tariffs themselves but also by the heightened uncertainty surrounding the trade war, with firms generally opting to maintain their relationships with Chinese suppliers rather than expand them. Notably, only 12.9 percent of petitions for exemptions were granted, predominantly for products where alternatives were scarce. This analysis underscores the broader conclusion that the trade war and accompanying policy uncertainty reshaped global trade dynamics, particularly benefiting ASEAN and Mexico.
Although the paper accurately identifies Mexico as a key...