Tetsushi Sonobe: This paper examines the economic effects of recent tariff wars and export restrictions stemming from geopolitical tensions between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the economies of ASEAN. It also discusses strategies for ASEAN to navigate escalating trade barriers to maintain its prosperity. The paper has three key points as follows:
1. Importance of economic analysis and rules-based trade system
The paper raises serious concerns about current trends in trade policy formulation, noting a shift towards national security considerations with insufficient attention to economic analysis. This approach often overlooks the economic interests behind trade policies and their potential consequences. Additionally, there is a tendency to dismiss the WTO as an obsolete mechanism and disregard the significance of a rules-based trade system.
2. Enhancing ASEAN's role in global supply chains (GSCs)
The paper suggests that ASEAN member states (AMS) should focus on strengthening their...