The Buffeting of Thailand by the Unholy Trinity of Avian Inºuenza, Tsunami, and the Oil Price Shock

The analysis of three recent shocks to the Thai economy suggests several lessons for economic management. The adverse consequences of the external shocks dissipate when economic agents adjust their behavior to the new environment. Appropriate policy responses are crucial in shortening the duration of an economy's deviation from its pre-shock growth path. Any intervention, either in energy or exchange rate markets, to maintain fixed prices will inevitably be costly and ineffective. Any attempt to cover up a brewing crisis will destroy public confidence, aggravate the situation, and deepen the crisis. Therefore, transparency in economic management is essential.