The Hard Road Ahead for Thailand's Economic Recovery

Globalization leads to the increasing complexity of production networks through foreign direct investment, which transmits demand shocks from the rest of the world to the Thai economy. Short-term fiscal stimulus would not be able to shorten the length of recession unless consumer confidence is restored. Violation of established social obligations and contracts erodes business sentiment and eventually would lead to a negative long-term impact on economic growth. The duration of the recession and the speed of a recovery hinge on the government's ability to restore confidence during uncertain times.