Drawing on the convergence theory, one would expect that the export performance of India (a latecomer to integrating with the global economy) would be at least on par with that of China because China's performance has happened as predicted by the theory. This study, using performance measures based on the endogenous growth theory that internalizes the ability to export the maximum possible exports under the determinants of exports including the existing behind the border and beyond the border constraints, shows that India's export performance is still far behind that of China. The implication of this study is that India's reform measures need to be bolstered effectively to catch up and to overtake China.

This paper was presented at the Asian Economic Panel Meeting at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., on 10 April 2007. Comments and suggestions on an earlier version by discussants Lael Brainard, Brookings Institution, and Zhang Xiaojing, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and participants are gratefully acknowledged. A special thanks to Wing Thye Woo for commissioning this study for this Panel Meeting.

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