During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a dramatic increase in national debt levels across the world, with reported cases of downgrading sovereign debt ratings and difficulty of fulfilling debt obligations (“debt distress”), heavily concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. In this context, the unfolding sovereign debt crisis in Sri Lanka has attracted worldwide attention as the canary in the coal mine for what could become a global “development” crisis. This paper examines the Sri Lankan crisis encompassing both the sources of vulnerability to the COVD-19 shock, and stabilization and structural adjustment reforms after the debt default, with emphasis on the systemic “solvency” challenge of dealing with the massive debt overhang evolved over the previous two decades. The prime focus of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program that Sri Lanka signed with the IMF in March 2023 is on economic stabilization through fiscal consolidation. This paper makes a strong case for combining economic stabilization with coherent structural adjustment policies to redress the long-standing antitradable bias in the incentive structure that underpinned vulnerability of the economy to external shocks.

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the contemporary policy debate on the industrialization strategy in developing countries by analyzing policy regime shifts and outcomes in Sri Lanka during the post-independence era. The analysis is guided by the received body of knowledge relating to the challenges faced by a small economy that takes world prices as given and is unable to affect world demand and supply in designing national industrialization strategy in this era of economic globalization. The findings demonstrate that the backlash against liberalization reforms in the contemporary Sri Lankan policy debate is largely based on ideological predilections rather than factual analysis. The comparative analysis of Sri Lanka's industrialization experience during the state-led import-substitution era and that of the post-reform era (in particular during the first two decades) makes a strong case for reconsidering the merit of the emerging emphasis on combining import substitution with export orientation with a sector specific focus. Selective policies to promote import substitution essentially impose a “tax” on export producers.

This paper examines the implications of the Trump Administration's U.S. trade policy on U.S.–India relations and the Indian economy against the backdrop of strengthening political and strategic ties between the two countries, which have been strong since the beginning of this century. Trump's strategy of using tariffs as the bargaining chip in bilateral economic relations with India, while ignoring mutual geopolitical interests, has coincided with new protectionist tendencies in India under the Make in India strategy of the Modi government, setting the stage for a protracted bilateral trade dispute. U.S. safeguard duties on steel and aluminium have taken a toll on India's exports of these products to the United States, but these products account for a tiny share of India's total exports to the United States. The hard hit was Trump's termination of India's designation as a beneficiary developing nation under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The GSP abolition is likely to have a much more significant effect on the Indian economy as exports under the program are heavily concentrated in the traditional labor-intensive industries. However, given the handsome mandate received by the Modi government at the May 2019 election and that the next election is four years away (2024), GSP abolition is unlikely to receive much weight in determining India's position in trade negotiations compared with the new protectionist policy stance stemming from the Make in India strategy. The WTO verdict on the U.S. complaint on India's manufacturing export subsidies, if upheld by the WTO Appellate body, would strengthen the U.S. position in negotiating a trade deal with India.

This paper examines the emerging patterns and economic implications of Indian overseas direct investment (ODI) from a historical perspective. The novelty of the analysis lies in its specific focus on the implications of the liberalization reforms initiated in the early 1990s and the resultant changes in the overall investment climate for the internationalisation of domestic companies. The findings cast doubts on the popular perception that the recent surge in ODI from India is an unmixed economic blessing, a sign of “coming of age” of Indian companies in global business. Given the remaining distortion in the domestic investment climate, the net national gains from these investments could be much less than what the reported absolute numbers suggest.

This paper examines causes and implications of Sri Lanka's political regime shift in February 2015, which has been widely hailed a victory for democracy, against the backdrop of the country's political and economic development in the post-independence era. The regime shift vividly demonstrates that voters, given the chance, turn against leaders they perceive to be corrupt, nepotistic, or needlessly divisive, even if they deliver handsome growth figures; there are limits to gaining political legitimacy in a multi-ethnic state simply by creating cleavages between majority and minority communities. For the first time, the minority communities in Sri Lanka appear to have felt themselves part of, and potentially an important influence on, the national political scene. It is, however, difficult at this stage to predict whether the regime change would usher in an era of ethnic harmony and robust economic growth. One hope is that war-weariness and discontent with the previous regime seem to have led to a greater willingness to accommodate diverse perspectives and demands within the political system.

The end of the long civil war in Sri Lanka in 2009 generated widespread expectations of a peace dividend that would enable the country to embark on a period of sustained economic growth. Recent developments have dampened that optimism, however, rekindling fears that Sri Lanka's tale of missed opportunities may continue. After showing remarkable resilience during decades of war and conflict, the Sri Lankan economy has failed to capitalize on the window of opportunity presented by the end of the military conflict. In the aftermath of military victory, there has been a sharp reversal of trade liberalization and a marked shift back towards nationalist-populist state-centered economic policies, reflecting the pressures of resurgent nationalism, an unprecedented concentration of political power in a small ruling group, and the influence of some powerful vested interests. Unfortunately, a return to the failed past policies of inward-oriented development strategies offers no viable solutions for the problems confronting small, capital- and resource-poor countries in today's globalized world. Sri Lanka must change both its political practices and economic policies drastically and urgently to cope with the huge development challenges facing it in an environment of global economic turbulence.

This paper examines the implications of global production sharing for economic integration in East Asia with emphasis on the behavior of trade flows in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. Although trade in parts and components and final assembly within production networks (“network trade”) has generally grown faster than total world trade in manufacturing, the degree of dependence of East Asia on this new form of international specialization is proportionately larger than elsewhere in the world. Network trade has certainly strengthened economic interdependence among countries in the region with the People's Republic of China playing a pivotal role as the premier center of final assembly. However, contrary to popular belief, this has not lessened the dependence of the export dynamism of these countries on the global economy. This inference is basically consistent with the behavior of trade flows following the onset of the global financial crisis.

This paper contributes to the debate on the use of temporary controls on capital outflows as a crisis resolution measure by examining the outcome of Malaysia's radical response to the 1997–98 financial crisis. The analysis suggests that carefully designed temporary capital controls were successful in providing Malaysian policymakers a viable setting for aiding the recovery process through the standard Keynesian therapy. Capital controls also assisted banking and corporate restructuring by facilitating the mobilization of domestic resources, and more importantly, by providing a cushion against possible adverse impacts on market sentiment of “national” initiatives. Of course other countries should be cautious in deriving policy lessons from Malaysia because a number of factors specific to Malaysia seem to have significantly conditioned the outcome of the capital-control based recovery package.

International product fragmentation—the cross-border dispersion of component production/assembly within vertically integrated production processes—is an important feature of the deepening structural interdependence of the world economy. This paper examines the implications of this phenomenon for global and regional trade patterns, with special emphasis on countries in East Asia, using a new data set culled from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database. It is found that, while “fragmentation trade” has generally grown faster than total world trade in manufacturing, the degree of dependence of East Asia on this new form of international specialization is proportionately larger than that of North America and Europe. The upshot is that international product fragmentation has made East Asian growth increasingly reliant on extra-regional trade, strengthening the case for a global, rather than a regional, approach to trade and investment policymaking.

This paper documents and analyzes the immediate economic impact of the Indian Ocean tsunami generated by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004, with a focus on Indonesia (Aceh province) and Sri Lanka, and assesses the disaster management process. The preliminary findings point to the importance of educating the public about simple precautions in the event of a disaster and enforcing coastal environmental regulations. The findings also argue for designing policies and programs, as an integral part of national development strategies, for mitigating the impact of natural disasters on the poor and highlight the need for combining international aid commitments with solutions to the limited aid-absorptive capacity in disaster-affected countries.