This paper examines causes and implications of Sri Lanka's political regime shift in February 2015, which has been widely hailed a victory for democracy, against the backdrop of the country's political and economic development in the post-independence era. The regime shift vividly demonstrates that voters, given the chance, turn against leaders they perceive to be corrupt, nepotistic, or needlessly divisive, even if they deliver handsome growth figures; there are limits to gaining political legitimacy in a multi-ethnic state simply by creating cleavages between majority and minority communities. For the first time, the minority communities in Sri Lanka appear to have felt themselves part of, and potentially an important influence on, the national political scene. It is, however, difficult at this stage to predict whether the regime change would usher in an era of ethnic harmony and robust economic growth. One hope is that war-weariness and discontent with the previous regime seem to have led to a greater willingness to accommodate diverse perspectives and demands within the political system.

The end of the long civil war in Sri Lanka in 2009 generated widespread expectations of a peace dividend that would enable the country to embark on a period of sustained economic growth. Recent developments have dampened that optimism, however, rekindling fears that Sri Lanka's tale of missed opportunities may continue. After showing remarkable resilience during decades of war and conflict, the Sri Lankan economy has failed to capitalize on the window of opportunity presented by the end of the military conflict. In the aftermath of military victory, there has been a sharp reversal of trade liberalization and a marked shift back towards nationalist-populist state-centered economic policies, reflecting the pressures of resurgent nationalism, an unprecedented concentration of political power in a small ruling group, and the influence of some powerful vested interests. Unfortunately, a return to the failed past policies of inward-oriented development strategies offers no viable solutions for the problems confronting small, capital- and resource-poor countries in today's globalized world. Sri Lanka must change both its political practices and economic policies drastically and urgently to cope with the huge development challenges facing it in an environment of global economic turbulence.