Using the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) data, we find a 30 percent raw differential in earnings in favor of state workers in 2002. We examine the degree to which this differential is a pure premium by using a Heckman two-step selection model, where we instrument workers’ preference for state jobs with family political connections, among other factors. We find that 22 percent of the observed earnings differential is a pure premium to a worker in a state job in urban China. In the absence of a political transition in China, state jobs remained the privileged constituency in a dual-track transition that attracted the best politically connected workers in urban China and offered them a pure earnings premium.

Despite its significance in policymaking and theory, empirical work on external returns to education has not been fruitful, and most studies focus on developed countries. This paper discusses external returns to education in China, an important developing economy. Using longitudinal data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we estimate a fixed-effects instrumental variables model and find positive returns of about 10 to 14 percent. Negligible returns are found for urban, female, and highly educated workers, and returns are positive and statistically significant for rural, male, and poorly educated workers. This suggests that China should increase public investment in education and target rural areas and poorly educated workers. Gender differences in the external returns to education may also imply that China should make more efforts to enhance the capacity of “networking” and competitiveness for women.