In the course of the transition from an industrial to a service economy, fundamental changes in the functioning of the labour market are expected to occur. A number of authors assert that these changes will result in an increasing external-numerical flexibility of firms which is assumed to affect labour market processes in terms of a generally higher labour market mobility and a decreasing employment stability (‘high-velocity labour market’). This paper examines the hypothesis of a growing importance of numeric-external flexibility, applying simple descriptive statistical methods to the event-history data of the IAB Employment Subsample for the West German labour market covering the years 1976 to 1995. There is no evidence for an acceleration of labour market ‘churning’, but rather for a stagnation or even slight decline of labour market mobility since the 1970s. Furthermore, job stability has not decreased over time, as one might have expected, but rather increased. In spite of these general results it might be conceivable that service-sector jobs have become more unstable but that this effect is cancelled out by a considerable stabilization of jobs in manufacturing. It turns out, however, that there is no evidence for developments in the ‘old’ and ‘new’ labour markets to contrast in such a simple way. Services display divergent trends when broken down by sub-sectors; jobs in some of them have stabilized while there is no or an opposite change in others.

Over the past twenty-five years, unemployment has been growing continuously in West Germany. In this study one of the reasons for growing unemployment is analysed: unemployment of older people in their transition from employment to retirement. First, the different possibilities of transitions into retirement are explained within the framework of social security regulations. Taking this legal framework as a starting point, early retirement passages are then modelled with the IAB unemployment sub-sample. It will be shown that - due to the long duration of these unemployment episodes - early retirement contributed considerably to the rise of total unemployment. Early retirement patterns will be broken down by economic sub-sectors and establishment size. It turns out that this kind of unemployment originates primarily from large establishments in manufacturing and extractive industries. Multivariate analysis presented at the end of the paper also includes personal characteristics such as gender or skills and income levels. In the light of these findings, the ‘push’ and ‘pull’ hypothesis common in explaining early exit are discussed. Drawing on the statistical findings as well as on the institutional analysis, it is argued that both kinds of factors are at work.