As extreme weather events, including floods, heat waves, droughts, and wildfires, have increased in frequency and severity, climate migration has also become more commonplace. However, few studies exist proposing climate vulnerability as a principal cause of out-migration. Utilizing an author-directed 2023 national survey in Guatemala, one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations suffering from both drought and flood, we provide robust empirical evidence that climate vulnerability impacts respondents’ propensity for migration. Our results show that while experiencing economic difficulties or lacking effective government responses fails to explain individuals’ inclinations to migrate, firsthand experience with climate vulnerability does predict respondent intentions to migrate. We argue that experience with extreme weather events serves as an intervening variable between economic adversity and migration. We conclude that greater consideration must be given to climate vulnerability and adaptation policies, as opposed to economic hardship, which has traditionally been viewed as the key driver of migration.

Indigenous people around the world have been particularly vocal about climate change as a challenge to their cosmovision—or traditional worldview—resulting in demands for protection of the earth as part of their core beliefs. Is this because indigenous people are the most vulnerable, and feel the impact of climate change more directly? Or is it because of the centrality of the earth to their traditional beliefs? Using survey evidence from Ecuador, we examine how indigenous cosmovision, science, and vulnerability influence the belief that climate change exists. On the basis of one-on-one interviews with indigenous leaders in Ecuador, we argue that both traditional beliefs and Western science inform citizen views of climate change. We discuss the implications of these findings, arguing that rather than competing with science, the Kichwa-based cosmovision complements Western scientific efforts to combat climate change. We also find that proximity to oil extraction is an important determinant of belief in climate change in Ecuador, suggesting that conceptualizations of vulnerability should be tailored to the particular experiences of individuals.