Correspondence: Stability or Volatility across the Taiwan Strait?

In his article “Is the Taiwan Strait Still a Flash Point? Rethinking the Prospects for Armed Conflict between China and Taiwan,” Scott Kastner concludes that “although the relationship will continue to be characterized by periodic tensions, the risk of armed conflict has been declining and is likely to continue to decline in the years ahead.”¹ Indeed, the chances for armed conflict between China and Taiwan have been decreasing since Ma Ying-jeou became president of Taiwan in 2008 and began to prioritize cross-strait engagement and integration. However, by focusing on the accomplishments of the Ma administration without assessing what is probable under Taiwan's current pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) president, Tsai Ing-wen, Kastner gives readers a false impression of the coming cross-strait dynamic. Rather than “periodic tensions,” we are far more likely to see prolonged tensions—even possibly amounting to a cross-strait cold peace—if Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Tsai...