I commend Stephen Biddle and Ivan Oelrich for elucidating a vital topic: China's antiaccess/area-denial (A2/AD) development and potential U.S. responses.1 Biddle and Oelrich document China's growing ability to threaten Taiwan with a blockade; the high cost and risks of any U.S. planning predicated on finding and kinetically striking mobile mainland targets; and the value in the United States, Taiwan, and regional allies enhancing their own countermeasures. Geography, technology, and physics matter—and interact powerfully, requiring sober consideration. However, mistaken assumptions and oversimplifications in describing these interactions risk underestimating how far China could extend credible combat power offshore. Emerging anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) capabilities aside, China's current sea- and air-launched anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) capability already exceeds the seaward limits asserted by Biddle and Oelrich. Thus, contrary to their article's optimistic projections, the United States and its regional allies already face a more challenging and uncertain military situation.
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