During the Cold War and in the years since, forecasting has played a prominent role in the theory and practice of International Relations (IR). The leaders of states seek to predict what other states will do. Of particular importance during the Cold War were the rival forecasts prepared by the United States and the Soviet Union. The collapse of the bipolar system in 1989–1991 underscored the limits of military-political forecasting.
Marian Ninov's book illustrates the pitfalls of forecasting in international politics, with specific reference to the Balkans both during and after the Cold War. Focusing on a platform devised by the Albanian Academy of Sciences that was published in October 1998, he argues that “an analysis of [the platform's] content can reveal the contradictions of national interests in the region and predict the degree and form of their opposition” during the Cold War and after (p. 14).
The book contains...