The human brain constantly anticipates the future based on memories of the past. Encountering a familiar situation reactivates memory of previous encounters, which can trigger a prediction of what comes next to facilitate responsiveness. However, a prediction error can lead to pruning of the offending memory, a process that weakens its representation in the brain and leads to forgetting. Our goal in this study was to evaluate whether memories are spared from such pruning in situations that allow for accurate predictions at the categorical level, despite prediction errors at the item level. Participants viewed a sequence of objects, some of which reappeared multiple times (“cues”), followed always by novel items. Half of the cues were followed by new items from different (unpredictable) categories, while others were followed by new items from a single (predictable) category. Pattern classification of fMRI data was used to identify category-specific predictions after each cue. Pruning was observed only in unpredictable contexts, while encoding of new items was less robust in predictable contexts. These findings demonstrate that how associative memories are updated is influenced by the reliability of abstract-level predictions in familiar contexts.