The neural substrates of decision making have been intensively studied using experimental and computational approaches. Alternative-choice tasks accompanying reinforcement have often been employed in investigations into decision making. Choice behavior has been empirically found in many experiments to follow Herrnstein's matching law. A number of theoretical studies have been done on explaining the mechanisms responsible for matching behavior. Various learning rules have been proved in these studies to achieve matching behavior as a steady state of learning processes. The models in the studies have consisted of a few parameters. However, a large number of neurons and synapses are expected to participate in decision making in the brain. We investigated learning behavior in simple but large-scale decision-making networks. We considered the covariance learning rule, which has been demonstrated to achieve matching behavior as a steady state (Loewenstein & Seung, 2006 ). We analyzed model behavior in a thermodynamic limit where the number of plastic synapses went to infinity. By means of techniques of the statistical mechanics, we can derive deterministic differential equations in this limit for the order parameters, which allow an exact calculation of the evolution of choice behavior. As a result, we found that matching behavior cannot be a steady state of learning when the fluctuations in input from individual sensory neurons are so large that they affect the net input to value-encoding neurons. This situation naturally arises when the synaptic strength is sufficiently strong and the excitatory input and the inhibitory input to the value-encoding neurons are balanced. The deviation from matching behavior is caused by increasing variance in the input potential due to the diffusion of synaptic efficacies. This effect causes an undermatching phenomenon, which has been often observed in behavioral experiments.

Neural activity is nonstationary and varies across time. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been used to track the state transition among quasi-stationary discrete neural states. Within this context, an independent Poisson model has been used for the output distribution of HMMs; hence, the model is incapable of tracking the change in correlation without modulating the firing rate. To achieve this, we applied a multivariate Poisson distribution with correlation terms for the output distribution of HMMs. We formulated a variational Bayes (VB) inference for the model. The VB could automatically determine the appropriate number of hidden states and correlation types while avoiding the overlearning problem. We developed an efficient algorithm for computing posteriors using the recursive relationship of a multivariate Poisson distribution. We demonstrated the performance of our method on synthetic data and real spike trains recorded from a songbird.