Although the responses of dopamine neurons in the primate midbrain are well characterized as carrying a temporal difference (TD) error signal for reward prediction, existing theories do not offer a credible account of how the brain keeps track of past sensory events that may be relevant to predicting future reward. Empirically, these shortcomings of previous theories are particularly evident in their account of experiments in which animals were exposed to variation in the timing of events. The original theories mispredicted the results of such experiments due to their use of a representational device called a tapped delay line. Here we propose that a richer understanding of history representation and a better account of these experiments can be given by considering TD algorithms for a formal setting that incorporates two features not originally considered in theories of the dopaminergic response: partial observability (a distinction between the animal's sensory experience and the true underlying state of the world) and semi-Markov dynamics (an explicit account of variation in the intervals between events). The new theory situates the dopaminergic system in a richer functional and anatomical context, since it assumes (in accord with recent computational theories of cortex) that problems of partial observability and stimulus history are solved in sensory cortex using statistical modeling and inference and that the TD system predicts reward using the results of this inference rather than raw sensory data. It also accounts for a range of experimental data, including the experiments involving programmed temporal variability and other previously unmodeled dopaminergic response phenomena, which we suggest are related to subjective noise in animals' interval timing. Finally, it offers new experimental predictions and a rich theoretical framework for designing future experiments.

This article addresses the relationship between long-term reward predictions and slow-timescale neural activity in temporal difference (TD) models of the dopamine system. Such models attempt to explain how the activity of dopamine (DA) neurons relates to errors in the prediction of future rewards. Previous models have been mostly restricted to short-term predictions of rewards expected during a single, somewhat artificially defined trial. Also, the models focused exclusively on the phasic pause-and-burst activity of primate DA neurons; the neurons' slower, tonic background activity was assumed to be constant. This has led to difficulty in explaining the results of neurochemical experiments that measure indications of DA release on a slow timescale, results that seem at first glance inconsistent with a reward prediction model. In this article, we investigate a TD model of DA activity modified so as to enable it to make longer-term predictions about rewards expected far in the future. We show that these predictions manifest themselves as slow changes in the baseline error signal, which we associate with tonic DA activity. Using this model, we make new predictions about the behavior of the DA system in a number of experimental situations. Some of these predictions suggest new computational explanations for previously puzzling data, such as indications from microdialysis studies of elevated DA activity triggered by aversive events.