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Francis Mollica
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Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
Open Mind (2018) 2 (2): 47–60.
Published: 01 December 2018
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Prior research has yielded mixed findings on whether learners’ certainty reflects veridical probabilities from observed evidence. We compared predictions from an idealized model of learning to humans’ subjective reports of certainty during a Boolean concept-learning task in order to examine subjective certainty over the course of abstract, logical concept learning. Our analysis evaluated theoretically motivated potential predictors of certainty to determine how well each predicted participants’ subjective reports of certainty. Regression analyses that controlled for individual differences demonstrated that despite learning curves tracking the ideal learning models, reported certainty was best explained by performance rather than measures derived from a learning model. In particular, participants’ confidence was driven primarily by how well they observed themselves doing, not by idealized statistical inferences made from the data they observed.
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
Open Mind (2017) 1 (2): 67–77.
Published: 01 September 2017
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The extent to which word learning is delayed by maturation as opposed to accumulating data is a longstanding question in language acquisition. Further, the precise way in which data influence learning on a large scale is unknown—experimental results reveal that children can rapidly learn words from single instances as well as by aggregating ambiguous information across multiple situations. We analyze Wordbank, a large cross-linguistic dataset of word acquisition norms, using a statistical waiting time model to quantify the role of data in early language learning, building off Hidaka ( 2013 ). We find that the model both fits and accurately predicts the shape of children’s growth curves. Further analyses of model parameters suggest a primarily data-driven account of early word learning. The parameters of the model directly characterize both the amount of data required and the rate at which informative data occurs. With high statistical certainty, words require on the order of ∼ 10 learning instances, which occur on average once every two months. Our method is extremely simple, statistically principled, and broadly applicable to modeling data-driven learning effects in development.
Includes: Supplementary data