Subjective Job Insecurity and the Rise of the Precariat: Evidence from the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States

There is a widespread belief that work is less secure than in the past, that an increasing share of workers are part of the “precariat.” It is hard to find much evidence for this in objective measures of job security, but perhaps subjective measures show different trends. This paper shows that in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, workers feel as secure as they ever have in the past 30 years. This is partly because job insecurity is very cyclical and (pre-COVID) unemployment rates very low, but there is also no clear underlying trend towards increased subjective measures of job insecurity. This conclusion seems robust to controlling for the changing mix of the labor force, and it is true for specific subsets of workers.