Abstract
Using listings data, we construct a new repeat-sales house price index that describes house values at the contract date when the price is determined rather than the closing date when the property is transferred. We showthat this difference in timing helps explain several puzzles about house prices, including their strong short-term serial correlation and their weak correlation with stock prices and macroeconomic news shocks. In addition, we showthat a variant of our index that relies exclusively on listings data for recent transactions accurately reveals trends in house prices several months before existing price indexes like Case-Shiller become available.
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No rights reserved. This work was authored as part of the Contributors' official duties as Employees of the United States Government and is therefore a work of the United States Government. In accordance with 17 U.S.C. 105, no copyright protection is available for such works under U.S. law.
2017
The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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