Abstract
Standard extreme value theory implies that the distribution of the largest observations of a large cross section is well approximated by a parametric model, governed by a location, scale and shape parameter. The extremes of a panel of independent cross sections are all governed by the same parameters as long as the underlying distribution as well as the size of the cross sections are time invariant. We derive inference about these parameters, and tests of the null hypothesis of time invariance, under asymptotics that do not require the number of extremes or the number of time periods to increase. We further apply Hamiltonian Monte Carlo techniques to estimate the path of time-varying parameters. We illustrate the approach in four examples of U.S. data: damages from weather-related disasters, financial returns, city sizes and firm sizes.
