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Ben-Zion Zilberfarb
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Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (1999) 81 (2): 217–226.
Published: 01 May 1999
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We test the hypothesis associated with a standard assumption in the theoretical literature on learning: that economic agents interpret information identically. We use a data set based on a survey of Israeli business executives forecasting future inflation. One of the main advantages of using this data is that a major change in the inflation regime in 1985 can be treated as a natural experiment in new beliefs formation. We develop a methodology for testing this hypothesis and find evidence that is inconsistent with the identical-interpretation hypothesis, but is consistent with the proposed alternative.