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Christopher Blattman
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Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (2022) 104 (4): 764–779.
Published: 01 July 2022
Abstract
View articletitled, The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia
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for article titled, The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia
How feasible is violence early-warning prediction? Colombia and Indonesia have unusually fine-grained data. We assemble two decades of local violent events alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We attempt to predict violence one year ahead with a range of machine learning techniques. Our models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not simply autoregressive, as detailed histories of disaggregated violence perform best, but socioeconomic data substitute well for these histories. Even with unusually rich data, however, our models poorly predict new outbreaks or escalations of violence. These “best-case” scenarios with annual data fall short of workable early-warning systems.
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (2018) 100 (5): 891–905.
Published: 01 December 2018
Abstract
View articletitled, Do Anti-Poverty Programs Sway Voters? Experimental Evidence from Uganda
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for article titled, Do Anti-Poverty Programs Sway Voters? Experimental Evidence from Uganda
High-impact policies may not lead to support for the political party that introduces them. In 2008, Uganda’s government encouraged groups of youth to submit proposals to start enterprises. Of 535 eligible groups, a random 265 received grants of nearly $400 per person. Prior work showed that after four years, the Youth Opportunities Program raised employment by 17% and earnings by 38%. Here we show that recipients were no more likely to support the ruling party in elections. Rather, recipients slightly increased campaigning and voting for the opposition. Potential mechanisms include program misattribution, group socialization, and financial independence freeing voters from transactional voting.
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Articles
The Consequences of Child Soldiering
UnavailablePublisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (2010) 92 (4): 882–898.
Published: 01 November 2010
Abstract
View articletitled, The Consequences of Child Soldiering
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for article titled, The Consequences of Child Soldiering
Little is known about the impacts of military service on human capital and labor market outcomes due to an absence of data as well as sample selection: recruits are self-selected, screened, and selectively survive. We examine the case of Uganda, where rebel recruitment methods provide exogenous variation in conscription. Economic and educational impacts are widespread and persistent: schooling falls by nearly a year, skilled employment halves, and earnings drop by a third. Military service seems to be a poor substitute for schooling. Psychological distress is evident among those exposed to severe war violence and is not limited to ex-combatants.