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David N DeJong
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Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (2006) 88 (4): 625–640.
Published: 01 November 2006
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A large body of empirical research indicates that countries with low policy-induced trade barriers tend to enjoy rapid growth, ceteris paribus. In contrast, alternative theoretical models suggest that the relationship between trade barriers and growth may be contingent on the level of development. Employing a direct trade-barrier measure—ad valorem tariff rates—we find evidence of such a contingency: the marginal effect of tariffs on growth is declining in the level of per capita income. Moreover, evidence of a negative relationship between tariffs and growth is apparent only among the world's rich countries.
Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (2005) 87 (4): 697–708.
Published: 01 November 2005
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We develop a model of GDP growth under which regime changes are triggered stochastically by an observable tension index , constructed as the geometric sum of deviations of actual GDP growth from a corresponding sustainable rate. Within expansionary regimes, the tension index tends to increase, which heightens the probability of a regime change. Given a regime change, the process becomes reversed, and the tension index begins to decline along a newly established path. Linking the behavior of the tension index to GDP growth enables us to capture floor and ceiling effects.