We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework jointly estimated on disaggregated sub-components of the euro area HICP and has several additional advantages. First, it is able to swiftly infer abrupt changes in underlying inflation. Second, it helps to timely track turning points in underlying inflation. Third, the proposed indicator also has a satisfactory performance with respect to various criteria relevant for inflation monitoring.

Sectoral heterogeneity matters for monetary policy. Using CPI microdata, we estimate for 227 products a time-varying menu-cost model to investigate the quantitative relevance of this heterogeneity. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectoral heterogeneity in all structural parameters. Heterogeneity in the Calvo component of the pricing friction is, however, the main source of heterogeneity in price rigidity. Cross-sectoral heterogeneity amplifies the output effect of a monetary shock by a factor of about 2.5, compared to a single-sector model estimated with mean moments. Heterogeneity in the Calvo parameter plays a key role in this amplification.