Skip Nav Destination
1-1 of 1
Follow your search
Access your saved searches in your account
Would you like to receive an alert when new items match your search?
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (2013) 95 (1): 206–219.
Published: 01 March 2013
AbstractView article PDF
This paper provides evidence that the two leading principal components in a panel of 23 commodity convenience yields have statistically and quantitatively important predictive power for inflation even after controlling for unemployment gap and oil prices. The results hold up in out-of-sample forecasts, across forecast horizons, and across G7 countries. The convenience yields also explain commodity prices and can be seen as informational variables about future economic conditions as conveyed by the futures markets. A bootstrap procedure for conducting inference when the principal components are used as regressors is also proposed.
Includes: Supplementary data