Job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle-skill, routine occupations experienced over the past 35 years. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, essentially all employment loss in routine occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate can be accounted for by jobless recoveries in the routine occupations that are disappearing.

A leading explanation in the economic literature is that monetary policy has real effects on the economy because firms incur a cost when changing prices. Using a unique database of cost and retail price changes, we find that variation in menu costs results in up to 13.3% fewer price increases. We confirm that these effects are allocative and have a persistent impact on both prices and unit sales. We provide evidence that the menu cost channel operates only when cost increases are small in magnitude, which is consistent with theory and provides the first empirical evidence of boundary conditions.