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Pablo Ottonello
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Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics 1–31.
Published: 05 March 2025
Abstract
View articletitled, The Dynamics of Large Inflation Surges
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for article titled, The Dynamics of Large Inflation Surges
We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges observed worldwide in the last three decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation surges tend to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation exceeding that of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are initially unexpected but followed by a gradual catch-up of average short-term expectations with realized inflation. (3) Long-term inflation expectations tend to exhibit increases that persist throughout disinflation. (4) Policy responses are characterized by hikes in nominal interest rates but no tightening of real rates or fiscal balances, departing from textbook policy rules, and instead exhibiting a “fear of tightening.”
Includes: Supplementary data