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Pascal Michaillat
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Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics 1–35.
Published: 30 April 2024
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P-hacking is prevalent in reality but absent from classical hypothesis-testing theory. We therefore build a model of hypothesis testing that accounts for p-hacking. From the model, we derive critical values such that, if they are used to determine significance, and if p-hacking adjusts to the new significance standards, spurious significant results do not occur more often than intended. Because of p-hacking, such robust critical values are larger than classical critical values. In the model calibrated to medical science, the robust critical value is the classical critical value for the same test statistic but with one fifth of the significance level.
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (2021) 103 (2): 197–215.
Published: 10 May 2021
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At the zero lower bound, the New Keynesian model predicts that output and inflation collapse to implausibly low levels and that government spending and forward guidance have implausibly large effects. To resolve these anomalies, we introduce wealth into the utility function; the justification is that wealth is a marker of social status, and people value status. Since people partly save to accrue social status, the Euler equation is modified. As a result, when the marginal utility of wealth is sufficiently large, the dynamical system representing the zero-lower-bound equilibrium transforms from a saddle to a source, which resolves all the anomalies.
Includes: Supplementary data