We propose principled prediction intervals to quantify the uncertainty of a large class of synthetic control predictions (or estimators) in settings with staggered treatment adoption, offering precise non-asymptotic coverage probability guarantees. From a methodological perspective, we provide a detailed discussion of different causal quantities to be predicted, which we call causal predictands , allowing for multiple treated units with treatment adoption at possibly different points in time. We illustrate our methodology with an empirical application studying the effects of economic liberalization on real GDP per capita for Sub-Saharan African countries. Companion software packages are provided in Python, R, and Stata.

We study regression discontinuity designs when covariates are included in the estimation. We examine local polynomial estimators that include discrete or continuous covariates in an additive separable way, but without imposing any parametric restrictions on the underlying population regression functions. We recommend a covariate-adjustment approach that retains consistency under intuitive conditions and characterize the potential for estimation and inference improvements. We also present new covariate-adjusted mean-squared error expansions and robust bias-corrected inference procedures, with heteroskedasticity-consistent and cluster-robust standard errors. We provide an empirical illustration and an extensive simulation study. All methods are implemented in R and Stata software packages.