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Saeed Zaman
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Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics 1–45.
Published: 05 March 2025
Abstract
View articletitled, A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
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for article titled, A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
This paper develops a semi-structural model to jointly estimate “stars” — long-run levels of output (its growth rate), unemployment rate, real interest rate, productivity growth, price inflation, and wage inflation. It features links between survey expectations and stars, time-variation in macroeconomic relationships, and stochastic volatility. Survey data help discipline stars' estimates and have been crucial in estimating a high-dimensional model since the pandemic. The model has desirable real-time properties, competitive forecasting performance, and superior fit to the data compared to variants without the empirical features mentioned above. The by-products are estimates of various objects of great interest to the broader profession.
Includes: Supplementary data