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Sunoong Hwang
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Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (2015) 97 (1): 116–133.
Published: 01 March 2015
Abstract
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We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks; (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.
Includes: Supplementary data