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Timo Teräsvirta
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Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (1998) 80 (3): 399–409.
Published: 01 August 1998
Abstract
View articletitled, Modeling the Demand for M3 in the Unified Germany
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for article titled, Modeling the Demand for M3 in the Unified Germany
An error correction model for the demand for real M3 money is constructed for the period of 1976–1994 with real GNP, the GNP deflator, as well as a short-term and a long-term interest rate as explanatory variables. Quarterly, seasonally unadjusted data are used in estimating the model. It is found that there is a clear structural break due to the German unification in 1990. On the other hand, once this structural break is accounted for, a stable relation is found which resists a series of specification tests. These include a number of recent tests of parameter constancy and linearity. Our specification is at variance with findings reported by some other researchers, notably the Deutsche Bundesbank.