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Touhami Abdelkhalek
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Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (1998) 80 (4): 520–534.
Published: 01 November 1998
Abstract
View articletitled, Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models, with Application to A Model of the Moroccan Economy
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for article titled, Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models, with Application to A Model of the Moroccan Economy
We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of computable general equilibrium (CGE) (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Baycsian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show how they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.