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Vincent Rebeyrol
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Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (2019) 101 (1): 91–106.
Published: 01 March 2019
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This paper provides direct evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms’ dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about idiosyncratic demand in each market and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives. Firms update their beliefs to a given demand shock more, the younger they are. We test and empirically confirm this prediction, using the structure of the model, together with exporter-level data, to identify demand shocks and the firms’ beliefs about future demand. Consistent with theory, we also find the learning process to be weakened in more uncertain environments.
Includes: Supplementary data