We investigate how exposure to the One-Child Policy (OCP) during early adulthood affects marriage and fertility in China. Exploring fertility penalties across provinces over time and the different implementations by ethnicity, we show that the OCP significantly increases the unmarried rate among the Han ethnicity but not among the minorities. The OCP increases Han-minority marriages in regions where Han-minority couples are allowed for an additional child, but the impact is smaller in other regions. Finally, the deadweight loss caused by lower fertility accounts for 10 percent of annual household incomes, and policy-induced fewer marriages contribute to 30 percent of the fertility decline.

This study considers the experience of China's one-child policy to examine how fertility restrictions affect economic and social outcomes over a lifetime. Using variations in these penalties across provinces and over time, we find that exposure to stricter fertility restrictions when young leads to higher education levels, more white-collar jobs, delayed marriage, and lower fertility rates. Further consequences include lower rates of residing with the elderly and higher household income, consumption, and savings. Finally, exposure to stricter fertility restrictions in early life increases female empowerment. Overall, fertility restrictions imposed when people are young have powerful effects throughout their life cycle.

This paper examines an unintended response to the one-child policy in China: births of twins. Analysis of population census data shows that the one-child policy has accounted for more than one-third of the increase in the reported births of twins since the 1970s. Investigation using birth spacing with prior births and height difference within twins suggests that the increase in the birth of twins is partly due to parents reporting regularly spaced children as twins to avoid the policy violation punishment. The study highlights the possibility of individual behavioral response to undesirable government policies and the potential social consequences.