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Wilbert van der Klaauw
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Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (2016) 98 (3): 503–523.
Published: 01 July 2016
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Using a unique, randomized information experiment embedded in a survey, this paper investigates how consumers’ inflation expectations respond to new information. We find that respondents, on average, update their expectations in response to (certain types of) information, and do so sensibly, in a manner consistent with Bayesian updating. As a result of information provision, the distribution of inflation expectations converges toward its center and cross-sectional disagreement declines. We document heterogeneous information processing by gender and present suggestive evidence of respondents forecasting under asymmetric loss. Our results provide support for expectation-formation models in which agents form expectations rationally but face information constraints.
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Articles
Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (1999) 81 (3): 543–550.
Published: 01 August 1999
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In this paper, we analyze the decision by teachers to leave the profession in a dependent competing risks framework. The econometric model allows for a flexible, semiparametric specification of the duration-dependence structure and of the unobserved heterogeneity distribution in each exit-specific hazard function. Our results obtained for a large sample of UK teachers affirm the importance of teacher salaries and opportunity wages in the turnover decision of teachers and illustrate the insight gained from differentiating between multiple destinations or exit types.