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Zoltan Wolf
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Publisher: Journals Gateway
The Review of Economics and Statistics (2014) 96 (4): 745–755.
Published: 01 October 2014
Abstract
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In this paper, we explore whether information from firm-level data can improve forecasts of aggregate productivity growth. We generate firm-level productivity measures and aggregate them into time-series components that capture within-firm productivity and the productivity contribution of reallocation. We show that these components improve aggregate total factor productivity forecasts in a simple univariate setting, even when firm-level data are available with a time lag. Lagged firm-level information also improves aggregate productivity forecasts when we combine results from a variety of different multivariate forecasting models using Bayesian model averaging techniques.
Includes: Supplementary data