Quality Estimation (QE) is an important component in making Machine Translation (MT) useful in real-world applications, as it is aimed to inform the user on the quality of the MT output at test time. Existing approaches require large amounts of expert annotated data, computation, and time for training. As an alternative, we devise an unsupervised approach to QE where no training or access to additional resources besides the MT system itself is required. Different from most of the current work that treats the MT system as a black box, we explore useful information that can be extracted from the MT system as a by-product of translation. By utilizing methods for uncertainty quantification, we achieve very good correlation with human judgments of quality, rivaling state-of-the-art supervised QE models. To evaluate our approach we collect the first dataset that enables work on both black-box and glass-box approaches to QE.

Structural kernels are a flexible learning paradigm that has been widely used in Natural Language Processing. However, the problem of model selection in kernel-based methods is usually overlooked. Previous approaches mostly rely on setting default values for kernel hyperparameters or using grid search, which is slow and coarse-grained. In contrast, Bayesian methods allow efficient model selection by maximizing the evidence on the training data through gradient-based methods. In this paper we show how to perform this in the context of structural kernels by using Gaussian Processes. Experimental results on tree kernels show that this procedure results in better prediction performance compared to hyperparameter optimization via grid search. The framework proposed in this paper can be adapted to other structures besides trees, e.g., strings and graphs, thereby extending the utility of kernel-based methods.