This work presents a linguistic analysis into why larger Transformer-based pre-trained language models with more parameters and lower perplexity nonetheless yield surprisal estimates that are less predictive of human reading times. First, regression analyses show a strictly monotonic, positive log-linear relationship between perplexity and fit to reading times for the more recently released five GPT-Neo variants and eight OPT variants on two separate datasets, replicating earlier results limited to just GPT-2 (Oh et al., 2022 ). Subsequently, analysis of residual errors reveals a systematic deviation of the larger variants, such as underpredicting reading times of named entities and making compensatory overpredictions for reading times of function words such as modals and conjunctions. These results suggest that the propensity of larger Transformer-based models to ‘memorize’ sequences during training makes their surprisal estimates diverge from humanlike expectations, which warrants caution in using pre-trained language models to study human language processing.

There has been recent interest in applying cognitively- or empirically-motivated bounds on recursion depth to limit the search space of grammar induction models (Ponvert et al., 2011; Noji and Johnson, 2016; Shain et al., 2016). This work extends this depth-bounding approach to probabilistic context-free grammar induction (DB-PCFG), which has a smaller parameter space than hierarchical sequence models, and therefore more fully exploits the space reductions of depth-bounding. Results for this model on grammar acquisition from transcribed child-directed speech and newswire text exceed or are competitive with those of other models when evaluated on parse accuracy. Moreover, grammars acquired from this model demonstrate a consistent use of category labels, something which has not been demonstrated by other acquisition models.