Skip to Main Content
Table 1. 
Budget Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Shocks (deviation from baseline as share of GDP), 2014–2018
 FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018
Scenario A (30% increase in commodity prices or 1 SD)      
Overall balance −0.9 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.4 
Total debt 0.9 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.1 
Scenario B (10% depreciation in exchange rate)      
Overall balance −0.9 −0.9 −0.8 −0.6 −0.6 
Total debt 3.6 4.6 5.4 6.0 6.6 
Scenario C (130-basis-points increase in domestic interest rate or 1 SD)      
Overall balance −0.2 −0.2 −0.3 −0.3 −0.3 
Total debt 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 
Scenario D (0.7% decrease in real GDP growth or 1 SD)      
Overall balance −0.1 −0.1 −0.1 −0.1 −0.1 
Total debt 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 
 FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018
Scenario A (30% increase in commodity prices or 1 SD)      
Overall balance −0.9 −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.4 
Total debt 0.9 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.1 
Scenario B (10% depreciation in exchange rate)      
Overall balance −0.9 −0.9 −0.8 −0.6 −0.6 
Total debt 3.6 4.6 5.4 6.0 6.6 
Scenario C (130-basis-points increase in domestic interest rate or 1 SD)      
Overall balance −0.2 −0.2 −0.3 −0.3 −0.3 
Total debt 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 
Scenario D (0.7% decrease in real GDP growth or 1 SD)      
Overall balance −0.1 −0.1 −0.1 −0.1 −0.1 
Total debt 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 

FY = fiscal year, GDP = gross domestic product, SD = standard deviation.

Sources: Bangladesh authorities and author's calculations.

Close Modal

or Create an Account

Close Modal
Close Modal