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Digging deeper into this granular PMT-level decomposition reveals further insights about the PM bundles that new traders engage in. We are interested in exploring whether new entrants extend the universe of Thailand's PM export bundles—exporting an existing product to a new market, exporting a new product to an existing market, or both—or simply compete in an existing PM space. Focusing on the trader level, Table 11 takes the export growth decomposition shown on the left panel of Figure 11 and splits the contribution of new entrants into those that export existing PM bundles and those that export new ones. We find that the majority of the contribution to export growth from new traders has been from existing PMs, particularly in the recent period. During 2011–2015, for example, new entrants with new PMs contributed only 0.2 percentage points to total export growth, much lower than the contribution of 2.2 percentage points from new entrants with existing PMs. This suggests that new entrants tend to choose to compete with incumbents rather than going to untapped markets. Possible explanations include positive externalities from the incumbents that help save entry costs for new entrants or a lack of demand in the markets not currently served by existing traders. Alternatively, the low growth rate of new entrants with new PMs raises a concern over the inability of Thai firms to initiate new products into new markets.10

Table 10. 
Trader Churning Rate (%)
 2001–2007 2007–2011 2011–2015 2001–2015 
Aggregate 59.9 79.2 75.3 69.8 
By sector     
Agricultural products 72.2 69.3 72.3 71.4 
Food 66.5 64.5 65.3 65.6 
Mineral products 97.6 88.1 82.8 90.7 
Chemicals and rubbers 71.1 68.7 66.6 69.2 
Wood and leather products 81.2 105.9 90.4 90.8 
Textiles and wearing apparels 78.3 134.7 117.9 105.7 
Metals and other materials 71.2 86.1 75.4 76.7 
Machinery 84.2 95.2 84.6 87.5 
Transportation 105.9 101.2 97.1 102.1 
Miscellaneous 89.7 113.0 103.4 100.3 
By region     
ASEAN 69.9 67.1 68.2 68.6 
Australia 64.0 67.0 60.1 63.7 
People's Republic of China 84.4 77.3 70.1 78.3 
East Asia 71.3 69.5 67.6 69.8 
European Union 59.2 64.7 63.9 62.1 
Hong Kong, China 67.7 63.1 59.5 64.1 
India 80.9 76.2 65.8 75.3 
Japan 51.8 86.6 75.5 68.5 
United States 55.0 59.0 60.2 57.6 
Rest of the world 57.8 74.7 66.3 65.1 
 2001–2007 2007–2011 2011–2015 2001–2015 
Aggregate 59.9 79.2 75.3 69.8 
By sector     
Agricultural products 72.2 69.3 72.3 71.4 
Food 66.5 64.5 65.3 65.6 
Mineral products 97.6 88.1 82.8 90.7 
Chemicals and rubbers 71.1 68.7 66.6 69.2 
Wood and leather products 81.2 105.9 90.4 90.8 
Textiles and wearing apparels 78.3 134.7 117.9 105.7 
Metals and other materials 71.2 86.1 75.4 76.7 
Machinery 84.2 95.2 84.6 87.5 
Transportation 105.9 101.2 97.1 102.1 
Miscellaneous 89.7 113.0 103.4 100.3 
By region     
ASEAN 69.9 67.1 68.2 68.6 
Australia 64.0 67.0 60.1 63.7 
People's Republic of China 84.4 77.3 70.1 78.3 
East Asia 71.3 69.5 67.6 69.8 
European Union 59.2 64.7 63.9 62.1 
Hong Kong, China 67.7 63.1 59.5 64.1 
India 80.9 76.2 65.8 75.3 
Japan 51.8 86.6 75.5 68.5 
United States 55.0 59.0 60.2 57.6 
Rest of the world 57.8 74.7 66.3 65.1 

ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Sources: Thai Customs Department and authors’ calculations.

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