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When comparing the growth rates of real per capita income of individual countries, Figure 4 shows how Indonesia and India grow faster than the PRC, though over time their growth rates converge. As can be seen in Table 1, Indonesia is predicted to overtake the PRC before the year 2200, while India's per capita income converges to the PRC's. In 2600, India and Indonesia will have become the richest of the large countries in Asia, surpassing both the PRC and Japan. The Republic of Korea is also poised to overtake Japan, although it falls behind some of the other major Asian countries. Starting as a medium-density country in 2000, Japan experiences relatively slow productivity growth, leading to future population loss and slower long-term growth.
Figure 4.

Benchmark Calibration—Levels and Growth Rates in Individual Countries

Figure 4.

Benchmark Calibration—Levels and Growth Rates in Individual Countries

Table 1. 
Real Income per Capita and Welfare (World = 100)
200022002600PDV
World = 100GDP pcWelfareGDP pcWelfareGDP pcWelfareGDP pcWelfare
Developing Asia 31 22 109 90 111 110 78 57 
PRC 32 12 112 71 99 84 81 42 
India 19 109 41 116 53 70 23 
Indonesia 30 17 131 93 114 104 91 56 
Republic of Korea 268 361 259 721 101 477 321 604 
Japan 426 85 287 138 93 83 426 126 
200022002600PDV
World = 100GDP pcWelfareGDP pcWelfareGDP pcWelfareGDP pcWelfare
Developing Asia 31 22 109 90 111 110 78 57 
PRC 32 12 112 71 99 84 81 42 
India 19 109 41 116 53 70 23 
Indonesia 30 17 131 93 114 104 91 56 
Republic of Korea 268 361 259 721 101 477 321 604 
Japan 426 85 287 138 93 83 426 126 

GDP pc = gross domestic product per capita, PDV = present discounted value, PRC = People's Republic of China.

Note: PDV is based on the years 2000‒2600 with a discount factor of 3.5%.

Source: Authors’ calculations.

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