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Table 4. 
Determinants of Mahindra Rajapaksa's margin (MRM): Presidential elections 2010 and 2015
Explanatory variableEquation (1)Equation (2)
Constant 9.13*** 9.65*** 
 (1.16) (1.34) 
ETH: The three minor ethnic groups, % −0.13***  
 (0.02)  
SLT: Sri Lankan Tamils, %  −0.13*** 
  (0.01) 
INDT: Indian Tamils, %  −0.21*** 
  (0.04) 
MSL: Muslims, %  −0.17*** 
  (0.073) 
URB: Urbanization, % −0.01 −0.11** 
 (0.02) (0.05) 
TNV: Change in turnout from previous election, % 0.01 0.02 
 (0.04) (0.0.3) 
D15: 2015 election dummy 8.55** 14.68*** 
 (3.45) (5.85) 
D15*ETH −0.56***  
 (0.12)  
D15*SLT  −0.23 
  (0.16) 
D15*INT  −0.53*** 
  (0.16) 
D15*MSL  −1.02** 
  (0.42) 
D15*URB −0.24* −0.23** 
 (0.13) (0.10) 
D15*TNV −0.06 −1.09** 
 (0.34) (0.53) 
Number of districts 22 22 
Number of observations 44 44 
Adjusted R2 0.83 0.85 
Breusch-Pagan LM test for (p-value)a 1.00 1.00 
Test for joint significance of D15 and its interaction 0.00 0.00 
terms with other variables (p-value)b   
Explanatory variableEquation (1)Equation (2)
Constant 9.13*** 9.65*** 
 (1.16) (1.34) 
ETH: The three minor ethnic groups, % −0.13***  
 (0.02)  
SLT: Sri Lankan Tamils, %  −0.13*** 
  (0.01) 
INDT: Indian Tamils, %  −0.21*** 
  (0.04) 
MSL: Muslims, %  −0.17*** 
  (0.073) 
URB: Urbanization, % −0.01 −0.11** 
 (0.02) (0.05) 
TNV: Change in turnout from previous election, % 0.01 0.02 
 (0.04) (0.0.3) 
D15: 2015 election dummy 8.55** 14.68*** 
 (3.45) (5.85) 
D15*ETH −0.56***  
 (0.12)  
D15*SLT  −0.23 
  (0.16) 
D15*INT  −0.53*** 
  (0.16) 
D15*MSL  −1.02** 
  (0.42) 
D15*URB −0.24* −0.23** 
 (0.13) (0.10) 
D15*TNV −0.06 −1.09** 
 (0.34) (0.53) 
Number of districts 22 22 
Number of observations 44 44 
Adjusted R2 0.83 0.85 
Breusch-Pagan LM test for (p-value)a 1.00 1.00 
Test for joint significance of D15 and its interaction 0.00 0.00 
terms with other variables (p-value)b   

Source: Estimated using the relevant data series given inTables 2,and3.

Note: The dependent variable (MRM) is the difference between percentage share of Mahinda Rajapaksa's votes in total votes polled and that of the major contestant. Heteroscedasticity-collected standard errors (clustered by districts) are reported in parenthesis, with the statistical significance of the regression coefficient denoted as ***statistically significant at the 1 percent level, **statistically significant at the 5 percent level, and *statistically significant at the 10 percent level.

a. A test for the choice of pool OLS estimator over random effects estimator.

b. A test of the statistical difference of the regression coefficients between 2010 and 2015 elections.

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