Table 4.

Explanatory variable . | Equation (1) . | Equation (2) . |
---|---|---|

Constant | 9.13^{***} | 9.65^{***} |

(1.16) | (1.34) | |

ETH: The three minor ethnic groups, % | −0.13^{***} | |

(0.02) | ||

SLT: Sri Lankan Tamils, % | −0.13^{***} | |

(0.01) | ||

INDT: Indian Tamils, % | −0.21^{***} | |

(0.04) | ||

MSL: Muslims, % | −0.17^{***} | |

(0.073) | ||

URB: Urbanization, % | −0.01 | −0.11^{**} |

(0.02) | (0.05) | |

TNV: Change in turnout from previous election, % | 0.01 | 0.02 |

(0.04) | (0.0.3) | |

D15: 2015 election dummy | 8.55^{**} | 14.68^{***} |

(3.45) | (5.85) | |

D15_{*}ETH | −0.56^{***} | |

(0.12) | ||

D15_{*}SLT | −0.23 | |

(0.16) | ||

D15_{*}INT | −0.53^{***} | |

(0.16) | ||

D15 _{*}MSL | −1.02^{**} | |

(0.42) | ||

D15_{*}URB | −0.24^{*} | −0.23^{**} |

(0.13) | (0.10) | |

D15_{*}TNV | −0.06 | −1.09^{**} |

(0.34) | (0.53) | |

Number of districts | 22 | 22 |

Number of observations | 44 | 44 |

Adjusted R ^{2} | 0.83 | 0.85 |

Breusch-Pagan LM test for (p-value)^{a} | 1.00 | 1.00 |

Test for joint significance of D15 and its interaction | 0.00 | 0.00 |

terms with other variables (p-value)^{b} |

Explanatory variable . | Equation (1) . | Equation (2) . |
---|---|---|

Constant | 9.13^{***} | 9.65^{***} |

(1.16) | (1.34) | |

ETH: The three minor ethnic groups, % | −0.13^{***} | |

(0.02) | ||

SLT: Sri Lankan Tamils, % | −0.13^{***} | |

(0.01) | ||

INDT: Indian Tamils, % | −0.21^{***} | |

(0.04) | ||

MSL: Muslims, % | −0.17^{***} | |

(0.073) | ||

URB: Urbanization, % | −0.01 | −0.11^{**} |

(0.02) | (0.05) | |

TNV: Change in turnout from previous election, % | 0.01 | 0.02 |

(0.04) | (0.0.3) | |

D15: 2015 election dummy | 8.55^{**} | 14.68^{***} |

(3.45) | (5.85) | |

D15_{*}ETH | −0.56^{***} | |

(0.12) | ||

D15_{*}SLT | −0.23 | |

(0.16) | ||

D15_{*}INT | −0.53^{***} | |

(0.16) | ||

D15 _{*}MSL | −1.02^{**} | |

(0.42) | ||

D15_{*}URB | −0.24^{*} | −0.23^{**} |

(0.13) | (0.10) | |

D15_{*}TNV | −0.06 | −1.09^{**} |

(0.34) | (0.53) | |

Number of districts | 22 | 22 |

Number of observations | 44 | 44 |

Adjusted R ^{2} | 0.83 | 0.85 |

Breusch-Pagan LM test for (p-value)^{a} | 1.00 | 1.00 |

Test for joint significance of D15 and its interaction | 0.00 | 0.00 |

terms with other variables (p-value)^{b} |

*Source: **Estimated using the relevant data series given in*Tables 2,*and*3.

*Note: **The dependent variable (MRM) is the difference between percentage share of Mahinda Rajapaksa's votes in total votes polled and that of the major contestant. Heteroscedasticity-collected standard errors (clustered by districts) are reported in parenthesis, with the statistical significance of the regression coefficient denoted as ^{***}statistically significant at the 1 percent level, ^{**}statistically significant at the 5 percent level, and ^{*}statistically significant at the 10 percent level.*

*a. A test for the choice of pool OLS estimator over random effects estimator.*

*b. A test of the statistical difference of the regression coefficients between 2010 and 2015 elections.*

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