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Table 5.
Impact of Downturns on School District Revenues – Districts Grouped by Student Povertya Dependent Variable: Natural Log of Per Pupil Fee Revenueb
First QuartileSecond QuartileThird QuartileFourth Quartile
Explanatoryof Fractionof Fractionof Fractionof Fraction
VariableFree LunchFree LunchFree LunchFree Lunch
Log of Enrollment –0.0455 –0.0940 –0.1385** –0.2249*** 
 (0.0723) (0.0606) (0.0568) (0.0424) 
Fraction special education 0.2471** 0.1677 0.3190*** 0.0164 
 (0.1126) (0.1460) (0.0940) (0.0793) 
Fraction eligible for free lunch –0.0317 0.3953** 0.1647 –0.1379** 
 (0.1717) (0.1671) (0.1147) (0.0701) 
Fraction Asian American 0.3266 1.8712* –0.1009 0.4200 
 (0.5451) (1.0922) (0.8444) (0.5473) 
Fraction Native American 0.4024 0.6757 1.2812*** –0.0205 
 (0.5597) (0.4291) (0.3021) (0.1214) 
Fraction African American –0.6232** –1.1233** –1.4168*** –0.3864* 
 (0.2891) (0.4650) (0.3596) (0.2220) 
Fraction Hispanic 0.8765** 0.7104* –1.1229*** –0.8485*** 
 (0.3839) (0.3985) (0.2519) (0.1715) 
State limit –0.0428*** 0.0972*** –0.0950*** –0.0976** 
 (0.0154) (0.0205) (0.0206) (0.0389) 
Local limit 0.0112 0.1433*** 0.0885*** 0.0578*** 
 (0.0169) (0.0170) (0.0178) (0.0168) 
Court ordered finance reform –0.1716*** 0.1583*** 0.1360*** 0.0413 
 (0.0324) (0.0205) (0.0203) (0.0257) 
Log of state formula aid –0.0317* 0.0037 –0.0007 –0.0428*** 
 (0.0180) (0.0127) (0.0125) (0.0134) 
Log of federal aid 0.0072 0.0226* –0.0012 0.0197 
 (0.0105) (0.0122) (0.0135) (0.0142) 
Trend 0.0095** 0.0040 –0.0060* 0.0054* 
 (0.0038) (0.0041) (0.0034) (0.0031) 
Trend squared 0.0003 –0.0011*** –0.0001 –0.0003* 
 (0.0002) (0.0002) (0.0001) (0.0001) 
Downturn indicator –0.0350*** 0.0605*** 0.0174** –0.0004 
 (0.0066) (0.0088) (0.0078) (0.0066) 
Number of observations 44,218 50,868 52,654 46,751 
Number of districts 7,363 6,761 7,320 5,384 
Within R2 0.0216 0.0133 0.0158 0.0103 
F Statistic 17.09 14.39 13.37 8.9 
First QuartileSecond QuartileThird QuartileFourth Quartile
Explanatoryof Fractionof Fractionof Fractionof Fraction
VariableFree LunchFree LunchFree LunchFree Lunch
Log of Enrollment –0.0455 –0.0940 –0.1385** –0.2249*** 
 (0.0723) (0.0606) (0.0568) (0.0424) 
Fraction special education 0.2471** 0.1677 0.3190*** 0.0164 
 (0.1126) (0.1460) (0.0940) (0.0793) 
Fraction eligible for free lunch –0.0317 0.3953** 0.1647 –0.1379** 
 (0.1717) (0.1671) (0.1147) (0.0701) 
Fraction Asian American 0.3266 1.8712* –0.1009 0.4200 
 (0.5451) (1.0922) (0.8444) (0.5473) 
Fraction Native American 0.4024 0.6757 1.2812*** –0.0205 
 (0.5597) (0.4291) (0.3021) (0.1214) 
Fraction African American –0.6232** –1.1233** –1.4168*** –0.3864* 
 (0.2891) (0.4650) (0.3596) (0.2220) 
Fraction Hispanic 0.8765** 0.7104* –1.1229*** –0.8485*** 
 (0.3839) (0.3985) (0.2519) (0.1715) 
State limit –0.0428*** 0.0972*** –0.0950*** –0.0976** 
 (0.0154) (0.0205) (0.0206) (0.0389) 
Local limit 0.0112 0.1433*** 0.0885*** 0.0578*** 
 (0.0169) (0.0170) (0.0178) (0.0168) 
Court ordered finance reform –0.1716*** 0.1583*** 0.1360*** 0.0413 
 (0.0324) (0.0205) (0.0203) (0.0257) 
Log of state formula aid –0.0317* 0.0037 –0.0007 –0.0428*** 
 (0.0180) (0.0127) (0.0125) (0.0134) 
Log of federal aid 0.0072 0.0226* –0.0012 0.0197 
 (0.0105) (0.0122) (0.0135) (0.0142) 
Trend 0.0095** 0.0040 –0.0060* 0.0054* 
 (0.0038) (0.0041) (0.0034) (0.0031) 
Trend squared 0.0003 –0.0011*** –0.0001 –0.0003* 
 (0.0002) (0.0002) (0.0001) (0.0001) 
Downturn indicator –0.0350*** 0.0605*** 0.0174** –0.0004 
 (0.0066) (0.0088) (0.0078) (0.0066) 
Number of observations 44,218 50,868 52,654 46,751 
Number of districts 7,363 6,761 7,320 5,384 
Within R2 0.0216 0.0133 0.0158 0.0103 
F Statistic 17.09 14.39 13.37 8.9 

Notes:aAll regressions include district-specific fixed effects.

bIn parentheses are standard errors robust to heteroskedasticity and calculated by clustering by school district.

*Statistically significant at the 10% level; **statistically significant at the 5% level; ***statistically significant at the 1% level.

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