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Table 6.
Impact of Downturns on School District Revenues – Districts Grouped by Student Povertya Dependent Variable: Natural Log of Per Pupil Alternative Revenuesb
First QuartileSecond QuartileThird QuartileFourth Quartile
Explanatoryof Fractionof Fractionof Fractionof Fraction
VariableFree LunchFree LunchFree LunchFree Lunch
Log of Enrollment –0.5336*** –0.3742*** –0.3677*** –0.4570*** 
 (0.0432) (0.0273) (0.0246) (0.0284) 
Fraction special education 0.0739 –0.2908*** –0.1875 –0.1084** 
 (0.0515) (0.0700) (0.0940) (0.0553) 
Fraction eligible for free lunch –0.3098** –0.7440*** –0.6455*** –0.2797*** 
 (0.1213) (0.0922) (0.0567) (0.0879) 
Fraction Asian American 0.5102* 1.1905*** 0.7162** 0.3117 
 (0.2739) (1.3724) (0.3289) (0.2970) 
Fraction Native American 0.1826 0.4858** 0.7411*** 0.3383*** 
 (0.1573) (0.2222) (0.1567) (0.0792) 
Fraction African American –0.2476 0.2339 –0.3447* –0.5737*** 
 (0.1562) (0.2212) (0.1939) (0.1308) 
Fraction Hispanic –0.1752 0.0537 0.0275 0.0254 
 (0.1586) (0.1493) (0.0945) (0.0902) 
State limit –0.0360** –0.0356*** –0.0827*** –0.1726*** 
 (0.0157) (0.0128) (0.0141) (0.0338) 
Local limit –0.0596*** 0.0243*** 0.0375*** 0.1073*** 
 (0.0104) (0.0091) (0.0098) (0.0122) 
Court ordered finance reform –0.0298** –0.0495*** –0.0276** –0.0669*** 
 (0.0146) (0.0107) (0.0116) (0.0169) 
Log of state formula aid 0.0421*** 0.0016 0.0093 –0.0103 
 (0.0111) (0.0073) (0.0080) (0.0113) 
Log of federal aid –0.0037 –0.0175** –0.0187** –0.0034 
 (0.0079) (0.0078) (0.0135) (0.0116) 
Trend 0.0622*** 0.0539*** 0.0487*** 0.0694*** 
 (0.0038) (0.0025) (0.0019) (0.0020) 
Trend squared –0.0021*** –0.0018*** –0.0017*** –0.0028*** 
 (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) 
Downturn indicator 0.0032 0.0033 –0.0098** –0.0141*** 
 (0.0043) (0.0043) (0.0042) (0.0051) 
Number of observations 61,629 64,426 67,461 66,542 
Number of districts 9,421 8,320 8,788 6,825 
Within R2 0.0915 0.0495 0.0578 0.0922 
F Statistic 102.33 75.68 101.82 153.1 
First QuartileSecond QuartileThird QuartileFourth Quartile
Explanatoryof Fractionof Fractionof Fractionof Fraction
VariableFree LunchFree LunchFree LunchFree Lunch
Log of Enrollment –0.5336*** –0.3742*** –0.3677*** –0.4570*** 
 (0.0432) (0.0273) (0.0246) (0.0284) 
Fraction special education 0.0739 –0.2908*** –0.1875 –0.1084** 
 (0.0515) (0.0700) (0.0940) (0.0553) 
Fraction eligible for free lunch –0.3098** –0.7440*** –0.6455*** –0.2797*** 
 (0.1213) (0.0922) (0.0567) (0.0879) 
Fraction Asian American 0.5102* 1.1905*** 0.7162** 0.3117 
 (0.2739) (1.3724) (0.3289) (0.2970) 
Fraction Native American 0.1826 0.4858** 0.7411*** 0.3383*** 
 (0.1573) (0.2222) (0.1567) (0.0792) 
Fraction African American –0.2476 0.2339 –0.3447* –0.5737*** 
 (0.1562) (0.2212) (0.1939) (0.1308) 
Fraction Hispanic –0.1752 0.0537 0.0275 0.0254 
 (0.1586) (0.1493) (0.0945) (0.0902) 
State limit –0.0360** –0.0356*** –0.0827*** –0.1726*** 
 (0.0157) (0.0128) (0.0141) (0.0338) 
Local limit –0.0596*** 0.0243*** 0.0375*** 0.1073*** 
 (0.0104) (0.0091) (0.0098) (0.0122) 
Court ordered finance reform –0.0298** –0.0495*** –0.0276** –0.0669*** 
 (0.0146) (0.0107) (0.0116) (0.0169) 
Log of state formula aid 0.0421*** 0.0016 0.0093 –0.0103 
 (0.0111) (0.0073) (0.0080) (0.0113) 
Log of federal aid –0.0037 –0.0175** –0.0187** –0.0034 
 (0.0079) (0.0078) (0.0135) (0.0116) 
Trend 0.0622*** 0.0539*** 0.0487*** 0.0694*** 
 (0.0038) (0.0025) (0.0019) (0.0020) 
Trend squared –0.0021*** –0.0018*** –0.0017*** –0.0028*** 
 (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) 
Downturn indicator 0.0032 0.0033 –0.0098** –0.0141*** 
 (0.0043) (0.0043) (0.0042) (0.0051) 
Number of observations 61,629 64,426 67,461 66,542 
Number of districts 9,421 8,320 8,788 6,825 
Within R2 0.0915 0.0495 0.0578 0.0922 
F Statistic 102.33 75.68 101.82 153.1 

Notes:aAll regressions include district-specific fixed effects.

bIn parentheses are standard errors robust to heteroskedasticity and calculated by clustering by school district.

*Statistically significant at the 10% level; **statistically significant at the 5% level; ***statistically significant at the 1% level.

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