Table 5. 
Using Students’ Predicted Probability of ACT-Taking Pre-Policy to Narrow in on the Marginal Student
Pre-Policy Probability (Take ACT)
Dependent VariableAll (1)Very Low (2)Low (3)Middle (4)High (5)Very High (6)Low/Middle (7)Tails (8)
Take ACT 0.034*** 0.044*** 0.038*** 0.028*** 0.007 0.007 0.032*** 0.036** 
 (0.013) (0.012) (0.010) (0.006) (0.007) (0.012) (0.006) (0.018) 
 0.580 0.199 0.457 0.600 0.710 0.835 0.531 0.618 
Enroll in:         
Any college 0.003 −0.001 0.013 0.014** −0.008 0.003 0.014** −0.003 
 (0.004) (0.008) (0.008) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.006) (0.004) 
 0.587 0.305 0.497 0.616 0.676 0.765 0.559 0.608 
Four-year college 0.006 −0.002 0.013** 0.012** 0.001 0.001 0.013** 0.000 
 (0.004) (0.005) (0.007) (0.006) (0.008) (0.008) (0.005) (0.004) 
 0.321 0.077 0.207 0.305 0.398 0.553 0.259 0.369 
Two-year college −0.003 0.001 −0.000 0.001 −0.010 0.002 0.001 −0.003 
 (0.004) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.005) (0.004) 
 0.266 0.227 0.290 0.311 0.277 0.212 0.301 0.239 
Covariates 
School fixed effects 
Sample size 536,813 86,136 117,944 117,381 104,082 111,270 235,325 301,488 
Pre-Policy Probability (Take ACT)
Dependent VariableAll (1)Very Low (2)Low (3)Middle (4)High (5)Very High (6)Low/Middle (7)Tails (8)
Take ACT 0.034*** 0.044*** 0.038*** 0.028*** 0.007 0.007 0.032*** 0.036** 
 (0.013) (0.012) (0.010) (0.006) (0.007) (0.012) (0.006) (0.018) 
 0.580 0.199 0.457 0.600 0.710 0.835 0.531 0.618 
Enroll in:         
Any college 0.003 −0.001 0.013 0.014** −0.008 0.003 0.014** −0.003 
 (0.004) (0.008) (0.008) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.006) (0.004) 
 0.587 0.305 0.497 0.616 0.676 0.765 0.559 0.608 
Four-year college 0.006 −0.002 0.013** 0.012** 0.001 0.001 0.013** 0.000 
 (0.004) (0.005) (0.007) (0.006) (0.008) (0.008) (0.005) (0.004) 
 0.321 0.077 0.207 0.305 0.398 0.553 0.259 0.369 
Two-year college −0.003 0.001 −0.000 0.001 −0.010 0.002 0.001 −0.003 
 (0.004) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.005) (0.004) 
 0.266 0.227 0.290 0.311 0.277 0.212 0.301 0.239 
Covariates 
School fixed effects 
Sample size 536,813 86,136 117,944 117,381 104,082 111,270 235,325 301,488 

Notes: The sample is all first-time, public school Michigan eleventh graders in years 2004–09, conditional on reaching spring of eleventh grade. The sample is restricted to the 226 schools without a pre-policy ACT test center and the 226 schools with a pre-policy test center matched using nearest neighbor matching. Each point estimate is from a separate linear probability model, difference-in-difference regression. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the school level. Pre-policy dependent variable means are in italics below the standard errors.

**Significant at the 5% level; ***significant at the 1% level.

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