MIT Press

As shown in table 3, columns 1 and 3, the probability of making a structural move is strongly predicted by both elementary and middle school grade span. The probability that a student makes a structural move decreases with YearsPre (but at a decreasing rate) and YearsPost, and increases by 12.3–12.5 percentage points at Terminal. That is, a student is significantly more likely to make a structural move in the year after completing the terminal grade of his first-grade elementary school and significantly less likely to have made a structural move in any other year. For middle school entry grade, the probability of making a structural move decreases with YearsPreMS at a decreasing rate. Structural moves are weakly predicted by the sale of 2–4 family homes.

Table 3.

First-stage Instrumental Variable Results, Summer Moves, ELA Exams

	ELA		Math
	Post Structural	Post Nonstructural	Post Structural	Post Nonstructural
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
First-grade terminal grade
YearsPre	−0.129^***	0.002	−0.126^***	0.001
	(0.022)	(0.014)	(0.022)	(0.014)
YearsPre²	0.073^***	−0.015^***	0.073^***	−0.014^***
	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Terminal (= 1 if current grade	0.123^***	−0.016^***	0.125^***	−0.017^***
is terminal grade)	(0.010)	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.005)
YearsPost²	−0.033^***	0.003^***	−0.033^***	0.003^***
	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)
Middle school entry grade
YearsPreMS	−0.177^***	0.045^***	−0.177^***	0.046^***
	(0.035)	(0.014)	(0.035)	(0.014)
YearsPreMS²	0.072^***	−0.027^***	0.072^***	−0.027^***
	(0.013)	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.009)
Entry (= 1 if current grade	0.006	0.006^**	0.006	0.007^**
is entry grade)	(0.012)	(0.003)	(0.012)	(0.003)
YearsPostMS²	0.002	−0.001	0.002	−0.001
	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)
Building Sale
Sale of 2–4 family building	0.011^***	0.016^***	0.012^***	0.015^***
	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.003)
Sale of 5+ family building	−0.003	−0.002	−0.004	−0.001
	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.002)
Sale of other building type	−0.008	0.005	−0.008	0.004
	(0.010)	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.006)
Observations	342,685	342,685	343,832	343,832
Unique students	88,241	88,241	88,254	88,254
F excluded (11, 8,150)	203.26	23.40	205.79	23.33
Prob > F	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
R²	0.849	0.912	0.849	0.912

	ELA		Math
	Post Structural	Post Nonstructural	Post Structural	Post Nonstructural
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
First-grade terminal grade
YearsPre	−0.129^***	0.002	−0.126^***	0.001
	(0.022)	(0.014)	(0.022)	(0.014)
YearsPre²	0.073^***	−0.015^***	0.073^***	−0.014^***
	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Terminal (= 1 if current grade	0.123^***	−0.016^***	0.125^***	−0.017^***
is terminal grade)	(0.010)	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.005)
YearsPost²	−0.033^***	0.003^***	−0.033^***	0.003^***
	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)
Middle school entry grade
YearsPreMS	−0.177^***	0.045^***	−0.177^***	0.046^***
	(0.035)	(0.014)	(0.035)	(0.014)
YearsPreMS²	0.072^***	−0.027^***	0.072^***	−0.027^***
	(0.013)	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.009)
Entry (= 1 if current grade	0.006	0.006^**	0.006	0.007^**
is entry grade)	(0.012)	(0.003)	(0.012)	(0.003)
YearsPostMS²	0.002	−0.001	0.002	−0.001
	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)
Building Sale
Sale of 2–4 family building	0.011^***	0.016^***	0.012^***	0.015^***
	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.003)
Sale of 5+ family building	−0.003	−0.002	−0.004	−0.001
	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.002)
Sale of other building type	−0.008	0.005	−0.008	0.004
	(0.010)	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.006)
Observations	342,685	342,685	343,832	343,832
Unique students	88,241	88,241	88,254	88,254
F excluded (11, 8,150)	203.26	23.40	205.79	23.33
Prob > F	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
R²	0.849	0.912	0.849	0.912

Notes: Robust standard errors, clustered by first-grade school by cohort, in parentheses. Coefficients displayed are for the excluded instruments. Model also includes controls for poverty, English proficiency, participation in special education services, whether a student made a mid-year move, grade, residence borough, year, and student fixed effects.

^**p < 0.05; ^***p < 0.01.

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