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As shown in table 3, columns 1 and 3, the probability of making a structural move is strongly predicted by both elementary and middle school grade span. The probability that a student makes a structural move decreases with YearsPre (but at a decreasing rate) and YearsPost, and increases by 12.3–12.5 percentage points at Terminal. That is, a student is significantly more likely to make a structural move in the year after completing the terminal grade of his first-grade elementary school and significantly less likely to have made a structural move in any other year. For middle school entry grade, the probability of making a structural move decreases with YearsPreMS at a decreasing rate. Structural moves are weakly predicted by the sale of 2–4 family homes.

Table 3. 
First-stage Instrumental Variable Results, Summer Moves, ELA Exams
ELAMath
Post StructuralPost NonstructuralPost StructuralPost Nonstructural
(1)(2)(3)(4)
First-grade terminal grade     
YearsPre −0.129*** 0.002 −0.126*** 0.001 
 (0.022) (0.014) (0.022) (0.014) 
YearsPre2 0.073*** −0.015*** 0.073*** −0.014*** 
 (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) 
Terminal (= 1 if current grade 0.123*** −0.016*** 0.125*** −0.017*** 
is terminal grade) (0.010) (0.005) (0.010) (0.005) 
YearsPost2 −0.033*** 0.003*** −0.033*** 0.003*** 
 (0.002) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) 
Middle school entry grade     
YearsPreMS −0.177*** 0.045*** −0.177*** 0.046*** 
 (0.035) (0.014) (0.035) (0.014) 
YearsPreMS2 0.072*** −0.027*** 0.072*** −0.027*** 
 (0.013) (0.009) (0.013) (0.009) 
Entry (= 1 if current grade 0.006 0.006** 0.006 0.007** 
is entry grade) (0.012) (0.003) (0.012) (0.003) 
YearsPostMS2 0.002 −0.001 0.002 −0.001 
 (0.002) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) 
Building Sale     
Sale of 2–4 family building 0.011*** 0.016*** 0.012*** 0.015*** 
 (0.004) (0.003) (0.004) (0.003) 
Sale of 5+ family building −0.003 −0.002 −0.004 −0.001 
 (0.005) (0.002) (0.005) (0.002) 
Sale of other building type −0.008 0.005 −0.008 0.004 
 (0.010) (0.007) (0.011) (0.006) 
Observations 342,685 342,685 343,832 343,832 
Unique students 88,241 88,241 88,254 88,254 
F excluded (11, 8,150) 203.26 23.40 205.79 23.33 
Prob > F 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 
R2 0.849 0.912 0.849 0.912 
ELAMath
Post StructuralPost NonstructuralPost StructuralPost Nonstructural
(1)(2)(3)(4)
First-grade terminal grade     
YearsPre −0.129*** 0.002 −0.126*** 0.001 
 (0.022) (0.014) (0.022) (0.014) 
YearsPre2 0.073*** −0.015*** 0.073*** −0.014*** 
 (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) 
Terminal (= 1 if current grade 0.123*** −0.016*** 0.125*** −0.017*** 
is terminal grade) (0.010) (0.005) (0.010) (0.005) 
YearsPost2 −0.033*** 0.003*** −0.033*** 0.003*** 
 (0.002) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) 
Middle school entry grade     
YearsPreMS −0.177*** 0.045*** −0.177*** 0.046*** 
 (0.035) (0.014) (0.035) (0.014) 
YearsPreMS2 0.072*** −0.027*** 0.072*** −0.027*** 
 (0.013) (0.009) (0.013) (0.009) 
Entry (= 1 if current grade 0.006 0.006** 0.006 0.007** 
is entry grade) (0.012) (0.003) (0.012) (0.003) 
YearsPostMS2 0.002 −0.001 0.002 −0.001 
 (0.002) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) 
Building Sale     
Sale of 2–4 family building 0.011*** 0.016*** 0.012*** 0.015*** 
 (0.004) (0.003) (0.004) (0.003) 
Sale of 5+ family building −0.003 −0.002 −0.004 −0.001 
 (0.005) (0.002) (0.005) (0.002) 
Sale of other building type −0.008 0.005 −0.008 0.004 
 (0.010) (0.007) (0.011) (0.006) 
Observations 342,685 342,685 343,832 343,832 
Unique students 88,241 88,241 88,254 88,254 
F excluded (11, 8,150) 203.26 23.40 205.79 23.33 
Prob > F 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 
R2 0.849 0.912 0.849 0.912 

Notes: Robust standard errors, clustered by first-grade school by cohort, in parentheses. Coefficients displayed are for the excluded instruments. Model also includes controls for poverty, English proficiency, participation in special education services, whether a student made a mid-year move, grade, residence borough, year, and student fixed effects.

**p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01.

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